ZAMBIA
AFTER THE ELECTIONS, HIGH TENSIONS BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION
(September 19, 2026)
LUSAKA. Following the elections, high tensions between the government and opposition forces: in differents moments, one politician dead, several arrests—including the defeated presidential and vice-presidential candidates—gunfights with the police, and doubts surrounding the voting and ballot-counting operations.
A typical scenario for many African countries, but not for Zambia, which for several decades has experienced its electoral moments in peace.
***
THE KEY PLAYERS
The leading figures of this political conflict are Hakainde Hichilema, the incumbent President running for a new term, and Brian Mundubile.
***
HAKAINDE HICHILEMA
Having become President in 2021 when he surprisingly defeated Edgar Lungu, Hakainde Hichilema, 64, is running for a new term as the UNDP candidate. His goal is to consolidate the positive results achieved by his administration over the past five years:
1.
Exiting the default procedure the country entered five years ago following the failure to pay interest on its foreign debt;
2.
Relaunching the national economy with significant GDP growth;
3.
Signing contracts with China and the United States to increase exports of copper—of which Zambia is the second-largest producer in Africa—and other strategic raw materials.
However, he is burdened by accusations of failing to improve the conditions of 60% of the population, mostly unemployed, who live below the poverty line.
Furthermore, he is criticized for not doing enough to support agriculture, which has been hit by a severe drought that damaged crops in recent years.
***
BRIAN MUNDUBILE
A former minister under Lungu and a member of parliament since 2016, Brian Mundubile, 55, broke away from the Patriotic Front (PF) to join the Tonsa Alliance, the coalition that also includes his party, the NRPUP.
***
THE ELECTIONS
THE RULES
After a fierce electoral campaign—also marked by opposition accusations of the government sliding toward authoritarianism—on August 13, 9 million voters went to the polls to make their choices.
At stake were:
1.
The Presidency of the Republic;
2.
The National Assembly;
3.
Local government authorities.
The current electoral legislation establishs that if no presidential candidate achieves an absolute majority in the first round, a runoff must be held between the two leading candidates, following the French model.
Each ticket includes a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate, who can assume the presidency if the leader is unable to exercise their functions or dies during office.
The President is also the head of the executive branch.
The National Assembly, expanded a year ago, consists of 226 deputies elected under a single-member first-past-the-post system following the British model, with 40 seats reserved for women.
The term of office for all positions is five years; after two consecutive terms, the President cannot run again.
***
THE VOTE
On pollling day—and even leading up to it—not everything went smoothly. In the final phase of the campaign, clashes broke out locally between supporters of rival candidates.
On August 13, while polls were open, several irregularities were reported:
– Polling stations failing to open at the legally designated time;
– Pre-marked ballots stuffed into ballot boxes;
– Vote-buying.
Overall, however, international observers noted that the day passed relatively peacefully, though tension was simmering just beneath the surface.
***
DEATH OF AN MP
In the evening, police raided a house owned by Brian Mundubile, suspecting that an armed insurrection against state authority was being prepared there.
In an exchange of gunfire, 49-year-old Member of Parliament and former minister Mutotwe Kafwaya was killed.
Eleven other people were arrested, while Mundubile and his vice-presidential candidate sought refuge at the UN headquarters in Lusaka, fearing for their safety (they were later jailed at the end of August).
At the same time, the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) halted the transmission of data, citing the destruction of ballots and tally sheets by supporters of rival candidates.
Days of uncertainty followed regarding both the outcome of the counts and the state of public order. Lawyers, civil society organizations, grassroots movements, and religious groups voiced concerns over a heavy atmosphere that seemed to foreshadow an escalation of violence.
Mundubile intended to appeal the election results, but the government closed the courts citing unspecified national security reasons, causing the deadline for filing to expire.
***
THE RESULTS
At the end, the figures released by the ECZ confirmed the President’s re-election: HH won with 60.5% of the vote, while his primary rival secured 37.9%.
In the National Assembly, the ruling party (UNDP) secured 138 seats, while the Tonsa Alliance won 59.
The remaining 29 seats were awarded to minor political forces.
***
THE INAUGURATION
On September 1 2026, HH officially assumed office as President of Zambia once again. In the speech he delivered at the National Heroes Stadium in Lusaka, under heavy police protection, he issued an appeal for national unity:
“Those who voted against us are not our enemies. They are our brothers, our sisters, our fellow citizens.”
Over the next five years, he added, the focus must shift from “stabilization” to “growth.”
To achieve this, interventions are planned in the mining sector, alongside support for agriculture, tourism, and energy infrastructure.
“Economic growth,” he concluded, “must produce concrete results for the population, from the education of children to job creation for young graduates and greater opportunities for farmers.”
***
ZAMBIA
A former British colony located in landlocked Southern Africa, Zambia has been independent since 1964. Its first President, Kenneth D. Kaunda, who held office until 1991, aligned the nation with the Non-Aligned Movement founded a few years earlier by Tito, Nehru, Sukarno, and others.
Following Kaunda’s retirement and the abolition of the single-party system, the country underwent a deep institutional transformation starting in 1991, becoming one of the few credible democracies in Africa.
Periodic election cycles have often served as an outlet for clashes and accusations of despotism—as occurred during Lungu’s tenure when HH himself was imprisoned. Eventually, tensions subsided and political debate returned to the standard framework of opposition between the ruling party and its rivals.
With his inauguration address, the President signaled his intent to move past the troubled post-election period and foster a more constructive democratic confrontation. Preventing an escalation of violence—which would jeopardize the socioeconomic growth the country needs—will now depend on all political actors involved.
PIER LUIGI GIACOMONI
