SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ON THE BRINK OF A FOOD CRISIS**
(April 11, 2026)
Sub-Saharan Africa is on the verge of a food crisis, a direct consequence of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, from which 30-35% of the fertilizers essential for cereal cultivation—and thus for feeding the population—are sourced.
While 129 ships passed through this maritime chokepoint before February 28, only 7 per day have transited since March 7.
Consequently, on the eve of harvesting and planting seasons, there is a severe shortage of urea, helium, and sulfur, all indispensable for fertilizing fields or refining phosphates—of which Morocco, for instance, is a major producer—while Nigerian refineries are unable to compensate for the void created by the Gulf crisis.
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THE EPICENTERS
“The shockwave from the conflict in the Middle East,” writes *Africa* magazine, “is already reaching African fields and markets, transforming a distant geopolitical crisis into a direct threat to daily survival.” In markets across the continent, compounded by the weakening of local currencies’ purchasing power, the prices of basic consumer goods are skyrocketing.
The French magazine *Le Grand Continent*, in a long article published on April 7, delves into the issue of fertilizers, which agriculture requires immensely, especially at specific times of the year.
We learn that according to the World Food Programme (WFP), at least 45 million people are at risk of starvation, particularly in the Sahel (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, and Chad) and the Horn of Africa (Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya).
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THE FIGURES
It’s reported that Sub-Saharan Africa imports, on average, 19% of the fertilizers it needs; however, Sudan imports 54%, while Kenya, Somalia, and Tanzania import about 30%.
Due to the crisis, international prices for these products have surged: in February, before the conflict erupted, a ton of urea cost $490. By March 24, it hit $750, and it is now holding steady at around $700.
Sulfur, essential for refining phosphates, has also seen a significant price increase.
This and other factors have already pushed several continental governments to decree energy-saving and social control measures:
* In Egypt, as reported by *Le Monde*, a night-time curfew starting at 9:00 PM has been imposed since March 28.
* In Madagascar, where power passed into the hands of a shaky military junta last October following the Gen Z revolt against Andry Rajoelina, a state of emergency has been declared in response to frequent blackouts—the same ones that triggered widespread popular anger.
It’s therefore not unlikely that we will soon see “Bread Riots” break out here and there, similar to those that erupted in the Arab world in 2011.
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HOW WE CAN GET OUT
According to experts, there are three possible scenarios:
1. If the crisis in the Gulf stabilizes rapidly and traffic resumes, the food crisis would be resolved, and the harvests saved.
2. If the blockade of Hormuz persists until May 15, the international community must assist African countries at risk of starvation by sending fertilizers or food to prevent a generalized collapse.
3. If the war continues, the food crisis is certain, and the 2026 harvests will be compromised, with repercussions spilling over into the following year.
In essence, we seem to be reliving the same anxieties as in 2022, when it was feared that cereal supplies would not reach Africa from Ukraine due to both Covid and the war between Moscow and Kyiv.
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SIXTY COUNTRIES
For the moment, however, it is not only Africa exposed to the consequences of the conflict, as over 60 countries have already taken initial energy-saving measures or are attempting to cap fuel prices.
This is, for instance, what Irish farmers are demanding; on April 10, they marched on Dublin with their tractors to convince the government to intervene.
In Brazil, India, and Malaysia, there is fear that the fertilizer crisis will lead to a shortage of rice.
The list of countries in difficulty could soon lengthen, both in the developed and the developing world.
PIER LUIGI GIACOMONI
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NOTES:
[1] NEWS, In Africa è allarme cibo: fertilizzanti e carburanti sempre più costosi*, Rivista Africa, April 7, 2026.
[2] A. Grandgeorge, ¿Podría el bloqueo del estrecho de Ormuz provocar una hambruna? Anatomía de un choque sistémico*, Le Grand Continent, April 7, 2026.
[3] S. Forey, L’Egypte décrète un couvre-feu commercial pour limiter les contrecoups de la guerre en Iran*, lemonde.fr, April 8, 2026.
